Wicked and Gladiator II bring some box office magic with their powerful openings

Well, all it took was something "popular" to get the box office back up and rolling. After nearly two months of dormancy (thanks to Joker: Folie a Deux and terrible scheduling from the major studios!), the domestic box office has been in a near-inescapable slump. However, Wicked swooped in to become the first $100+ million domestic opening in nearly three months. To boot, Gladiator II did terrific business too, reaffirming in the process how important it is to have multiple titles in the marketplace for audiences to see. First, though, let's look at the tremendous success of Wicked, which really blew down all the doors for how big non-Disney musicals can perform at the box office.

Previously, the biggest North American bow for a movie based on a Broadway musical was Into the Woods, with $31 million. Typically, these titles debut in December around or on Christmas Day. That release pattern ensures they debut before Friday (whatever day of the week Christmas is on) and dilute their three-day bows in the process. Even if these titles typically opened on Fridays, though, there’s no way any other Broadway musical adaptation could’ve come close to Wicked’s stupendous $114 million debut. In just three days, Wicked surpassed the lifetime domestic grosses of Dreamgirls and 2014's Annie. It also scored the third-biggest domestic bow of 2024, the seventh-biggest Universal Pictures debut ever, and the second-biggest live-action domestic musical opening weekend in history only behind Beauty and the Beast's gargantuan $174 million bow.

On Wicked's opening day alone, this Jon M. Chu directorial effort became the biggest movie Cynthia Erivo's ever appeared in, surpassing Harriet's $43.08 million. Presumably, Chaos Walking is somewhere right now pointlessly shouting "Stop the count!" while struggling to open a can of tuna in a run-down shack. Wicked also opened 51% ahead of Oz the Great and Powerful's $79.1 million domestic bow from March 2013, remember that movie? Its bow was also narrowly behind Alice in Wonderland’s $116 million debut from March 2010 and noticeably surpassed The Jungle Book and The Little Mermaid’s North American bows, in terms of modern big-budget fantasy family films.

There’s no shortage of good news for this gargantuan success, which Universal relentlessly marketed for the past nine months (starting with a lengthy 60-second Super Bowl commercial) with endless marketing tie-ins. Just the prospect of seeing a beloved Broadway show on the big screen, though, not to mention the enduring appeal of all things Oz, was likely enough to get people to come out in droves to see Wicked. It didn’t hurt that the movie had great word-of-mouth, not to mention an ad campaign emphasizing bright colors and a zippy atmosphere. That’s just the kind of all-ages entertainment that does well in the holiday season.

Though it was always a foregone conclusion Wicked would do well, it's still staggering to consider how wildly it's overperforming the domestic box office norms for live-action musicals. Outside of Aladdin and Beauty and the Beast, the only live-action musical to exceed $200 million domestically is Wonka. For years, Grease's $181.8 million North American haul put a strict cap on how high these titles could possibly go if they didn't hail from Disney. Wicked is upending that with a massive domestic run that's far from over after this opening weekend. At the very least, it should get to $350-375 million domestically. Could it defy gravity and get even higher? Well, to quote one of Chu's earliest directorial efforts...never say never...

It wasn’t all Wicked at the box office this weekend, though. Gladiator II also delivered robust numbers, grossing $57 million. Glicked didn’t prove as lucrative as Barbenheimer, and, alas, we didn’t get another instance of two movies simultaneously opening to $60+ million domestically. Looking at this Box Office Mojo page from August 2019 and considering the various $60+ million opening weekends of the 2020s, it appears that only two other times in history have two movies simultaneously bowed to $60+ million.

Those two instances are the June 21-23, 2013 frame when Monsters University and World War Z both bowed and, of course, the July 21-23, 2023 frame when Barbie and Oppenheimer premiered. There have been instances (like Memorial Day weekend 2004) when a holdover and a new release simultaneously grossed $60+ million each…but two newbie movies doing that??? Call that phenomenon MewTwo, because that’s rare. This pre-Thanksgiving weekend couldn’t make that duo a trio, but hey, Gladiator II still had a solid haul of $55.5 million. That’s Ridley Scott’s second-biggest North American opening ever, only behind Hannibal.

This period-piece epic also scored Denzel Washington’s largest bow ever in this territory and improved 35% on the first Gladiator’s opening weekend. Absolutely remarkable stuff, especially since it wasn't always clear if audiences would rally for more Gladiator. Without Russell Crowe around, would this film still have any appeal? Plus, this was Paul Mescal’s first big mainstream motion picture. Even with an Oscar nomination, he’s far from a household name. Paramount’s massive marketing campaign, though, emphasized audience-friendly faces like Denzel Washington and Pedro Pascal while stoking nostalgia for its Best Picture-winning predecessor. The dearth of other big R-rated epics in the marketplace certainly didn’t hurt either.

Gladiator II didn’t prove super frontloaded this weekend, so there’s a chance this could go as high as $165-170 million domestically depending on how many screens it holds onto over the final weeks of December.

Red One collapsed 59% this weekend in the face of Glicked, grossing $13.28 million for a $52.9 million 10-day domestic total. How it holds this weekend will really determine its final domestic haul, since Christmas movies historically get a minor boost over Thanksgiving. $100 million in North America isn't impossible yet for Red One...but its odds aren't looking great. Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin performed roughly in the same range as every other post-Sound of Freedom Angel Studios title, though at least it debuted better than the label's biggest duds like Sight. Grossing $5.12 million this weekend at 1,900 theaters, it'll probably make $13-15 million before its theatrical run ends. Not bad, but also nothing especially remarkable.

Venom: The Last Dance (which still kept on playing in 2,558 locations this weekend) fell another 45% this weekend to add $4 million. Its domestic haul now stands at $133.8 million in North America. Speaking of decent weekend-to-weekend retention, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever is by far the best hold in the top ten with its 33% dip, grossing another $3.5 million. With $25.5 million after 17 days of release, this one looks poised to end its domestic run in the $40-45 million neighborhood. Not too shabby for a $10 million budgeted family movie. Heretic lost another 55% this weekend, grossing an additional $2.3 million for a $24.76 million domestic total. Thanks to Thanksgiving week, it should exceed $30 million domestically, becoming only the eighth A24 movie to crack that threshold in North America.

The Wild Robot finally had a heftier weekend-to-weekend decline thanks to fellow PG-rated Universal Pictures movie Wicked entering the marketplace. Grossing $2 million in its ninth weekend of release, The Wild Robot cracked $140 million this frame (it now grossed $140.7 million domestically), meaning it's done four times its opening weekend. A Real Pain fell 50% in its second weekend of limited release to gross another $1.1 million for a $4.9 million domestic total. Conclave, after some seriously heavenly holds, dropped 61% this weekend after losing 1,364 theaters. It still grossed another $1.1 million for a robust $28.96 million domestic total.

Hello, Love, Again fell 58% this weekend and grossed another $1 million. This box office sleeper hit (which has never played in more than 248 theaters) has already grossed an outstanding $4.8 million domestically. This weekend, Anora shed 1000 theaters in the face of Wicked and Gladiator II. This reflects a modern problem facing indie films; big tentpoles take up more screens than ever (Red One is STILL playing in 4,080-ish theaters). That makes it difficult for indies to hold onto screens and build up momentum. Unsurprisingly, the title fell 62% this weekend for another $675,000. The Parasite weekend to weekend comparisons finally collapsed, but Anora’s still grossed $12.02 million domestically so it’s all gravy. 

Flow got off to a fantastic start for Janus Films, grossing $50,764 at two locations for a $25,382 per theater average. Fellow limited-release newbie Porcelain War grossed $11,227 at a single theater.

The top ten movies this weekend grossed $192 million, not too shabby among pre-Thanksgiving weekend hauls.  That's actually ahead of 2018's pre-Thanksgiving weekend haul of $161.4 million and slightly ahead of 2019’s pre-Thanksgiving weekend cume of $190.1 million. It’s nowhere near the biggest pre-Thanksgiving weekend hauls ever belonging to 2009 ($250 million), 2012 ($242.3 million), and 2013 (218.3 million). However, all three of those frames had a deeper bench of titles in the marketplace to work with. Hollywood didn't just put all its cards on Thanksgiving-adjacent titles. In 2009, Sony/Columbia Pictures launched a big disaster movie 2012 over November 13-15, a week before the pre-Thanksgiving frame. That same studio distributed Skyfall a weekend before Breaking Dawn- Part 2 and Lincoln's wide release expansion dominated 2012's pre-Thanksgiving frame.

Even over this lucrative Glicked weekend, there’s still an opportunity for me to once again parrot my ceaseless mantra of theaters needing more movies in the marketplace. Four movies made over $18 million each over pre-Thanksgiving 2012. Six movies each cracked $10+ million over pre-Thanksgiving 2009. Meanwhile, only three movies exceeded $5.5 million this frame. Not even Wicked and Gladiator II’s glorious box office triumphs could cover that problem up. On a more upbeat note, the deluge of moviegoers from all walks of life showing up to their local multiplex this weekend is yet another reflection that people LOVE going to the movies...studios just need to give them something to see.

Sometimes, the big pre-Thanksgiving movie dominates the subsequent Thanksgiving weekend frame, like with The Twilight Saga: New Moon or The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Parts One and Two. However, Wicked will very quickly have to cede its box office crown to another newcomer who’s about to really rock the marketplace. Moana 2 is almost here and shaping up to be, at the very least, one of the biggest Thanksgiving openers in history.