Note: All figures discussed here are for the three-day weekend.
In 2019, the Marvel Cinematic Universe grossed roughly $1.58 billion just from the domestic grosses of only three movies. It was a staggering achievement aided by Avengers: Endgame becoming the second-biggest movie ever in North America. Cut to 2025 and, well, the game has changed a bit. A deluge of streaming shows, crummy movies, and overly-complicated lore have turned the saga into a pop culture punchline. Unless either James Gunn is directing an MCU movie or Marvel Studios leans on nostalgia for 2000s superhero cinema, the Marvel Cinematic Universe can’t seem to deliver a massive 2020s box office, especially in the wake of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
Captain America: Brave New World epitomized these problems perfectly in its domestic box office debut. Eight years ago, Thor: Ragnarok promised audiences MCU entertainment by pairing Thor up with The Hulk, a famous superhero everyone knows (as well as somebody Thor already interacted with in The Avengers). Brave New World, meanwhile, had a plot requiring knowledge of a streaming miniseries and the second-lowest-grossing MCU movie that’s also 17-years-old. Naturally, that was a bit impenetrable for general audiences to get around, though Brave New World, on its face, didn’t post disastrous numbers.
Its $88.5 million domestic debut is the fourth-biggest ever for February while all four of February’s largest North American bows belong to Marvel Comics adaptations. It also wasn’t too worrisome in how frontloaded it was over the weekend on a day-to-day basis. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’s $106 million domestic bow was roughly 6.1 times its $17.5 million Thursday grosses. Meanwhile, Brave New World did roughly 7.4 times its $12 million Thursday night grosses.
Still, Brave New World had a significantly lower than usual opening weekend for a post-2015 MCU movie. From 2016 to 2019, only one MCU title (Ant-Man and the Wasp) opened under $85 million. Cut to 2025 and Brave New World opened lower than Captain America: The Winter Soldier from 11 years ago and only 11% ahead of Black Widow's $80.36 million bow, despite that title simultaneously debuting on PVOD on Disney+. Among all Marvel adaptations, Brave New World was only 5% ahead of X-Men Origins: Wolverine from 16 years ago! And that’s before taking inflation into account. One interesting box office trivia here: this is Harrison Ford’s third-biggest opening weekend ever, only behind the debuts of Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.
With Brave New World proving very frontloaded over the weekend and its disastrous B- CinemaScore (the first time in history an MCU movie has gotten lower than a B grade on that service), this $180 million budgeted title will struggle to either stick around in the weeks ahead or crack $200 million domestically. Brave New World at least not crumbling like The Flash shows there’s still some residual goodwill out there for the Marvel Studios brand. However, this title was clearly held back by a plot too beholden to preexisting lore and good o’l fashioned poor word-of-mouth. It’s clear the marketplace cannot rely on MCU titles to carry the box office burden anymore, a reality that never should’ve existed anyway.
Three months after it began a gigantic United Kingdom theatrical run, Paddington in Peru hit North American movie theaters. It proceeded to gross $13 million in second place over its three-day bow, That's an 18% increase on Paddington 2's $11 million domestic bow and down roughly 32% from Paddington's $18.9 million debut ten years ago. Paddington in Peru clearly didn't get a massive domestic box office boost from Paddington 2's increased fanbase over the last seven years. However, opening in the same ballpark as its predecessors is something most live-action/CG kid's movie sequels never come close to doing. Just ask The Smurfs 2 and Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties. Usually these titles can only yield one successful movie since it's all about the novelty of seeing beloved cartoon characters in "the real world". When that's gone, the sequels have nothing to offer. Paddington in Peru, meanwhile, stayed the course for a Paddington movie in North America thanks to its predeccesors positive reception. It currently looks like Paddington in Peru is primed for a solid North American run while it makes most of its cash in overseas territories, to the surprise of no one.
Dog Man rebounded a bit after an unusually large second weekend decline last frame. Grossing $9.7 million in its third weekend, it eased 30%. Over 17 days of domestic play, Dog Man has now grossed $66.8 million. A $100+ million domestic finish still looks out of reach for this title, even with no new family movies in the marketplace for the next month. Though it’ll be one of the most frontloaded DreamWorks Animation titles ever, Dog Man should still take in a pretty penny for Universal since it cost only $40 million to make.
Heart Eyes got a massive boost from Valentine's Day on February 14th, with its second Friday gross increasing a whopping 32% from last Friday. Remove its Thursday night grosses from last Friday's haul and Heart Eyes nearly doubled its first Friday gross of $2.6 million on Valentine's Day. This timely slasher inevitably couldn't keep that kind of momentum going all weekend, but Heart Eyes still grossed another $10 million this weekend, a fabulous 20% jump from last frame. Its 10-day total now stands at $21.5 million. That's still not an ideal haul for an $18 million horror movie but Heart Eyes is on much firmer ground now compared to its opening weekend.
Ne Zha 2 has already become a massive box office phenomenon in its home country of China, having surpassed $1.6 billion in the territory alone as of this writing. The first movie in history to make $1+ billion in a single country finally dropped in North America this frame and in 660 theaters to boot. Ne Zha 2 debuted to a solid $7.3 million, enough to already make it third-biggest Chinese movie ever in North America only behind Hero and House of Flying Daggers. It'll inevitably be more frontloaded here and won't have too long of a North American run, as seen by Ne Zha 2 making just under 50% of its opening weekend gross from its Friday haul. However, it should have no problem surpassing $10 million domestically, an impressive sum for a foreign-language film. And to think, that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Ne Zha 2’s box office feats!
Mufasa: The Lion King went up 4% this weekend, possibly because of it being attached to drive-in showings of Brave New World but also likely because it turned into a go-to date movie for many Valentine's Day moviegoers. Grossing another $4.15 million this weekend, Mufasa's now up to $240.7 million domestically. Valentine's Day this weekend gave Love Hurts a little bit of a boost in its second weekend, though it drastically fell off again starting on Saturday. Still, this title did only dip 25% for the overall weekend, which is rock solid. Grossing another $4.37 million, Love Hurts has still only grossed $12.2 million over ten days of domestic play. For this title, a 20% second weekend drop is too little, too late.
One of Them Days had a terrific hold this weekend, as this Keke Palmer/Sza comedy went up 4% to gross another $2.97 million. Its domestic total is now perched at a terrific $43.5 million. This one should just get past $50 million, an outstanding feat both for a modern comedy and a movie costing only $14 million. Companion lost 2,200 theaters this weekend yet still had a solid 38% dip to gross another $1.87 million for a 17-day domestic total of $18.7 million. Like with Love Hurts, this strong hold can’t do much to mitigate Companion’s underwhelming first two weekends, but at least it didn’t collapse even after Warner Bros./New Line Cinema pulled it out of so many theaters.
Becoming Led Zeppelin expanded into 1,039 standard theaters this weekend and grossed $1.7 million for a $1,640 per theater average. That's only 10% below Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain's opening weekend in July 2021 and that title didn't burn off demand with a week of IMAX screenings. This music doc has now grossed a terrific $5.4 million after ten days of release. Folks, documentaries can still make money on the big screen, you just have to release them. Right outside the top ten was Chaava, which opened to $1.79 million from 497 theaters. Flight Risk grossed $1.64 million, a 36% dip from last weekend, and a $26.9 million domestic total.
Fellow Disney holdover A Complete Unknown was only down 11% this weekend to gross another $1.08 million for a $70.8 million domestic total. Fellow Disney holdover Moana 2 grossed $989,000 this weekend (down 39% from last frame) for a $457.66 million domestic total. This one’s still much more frontloaded than most Disney Animation Thanksgiving tentpoles, but its strong weekend-to-weekend holds in 2025 have made up ground for its sharp falls in December 2024.
Paddington in Peru entering the marketplace sent Sonic the Hedgehog 3 down 52% from last weekend. Grossing another $855,000, this family movie hit has now grossed $234.47 million. I’m Still Here fell 59% this weekend to gross another $406,160 for a $3.37 million domestic total. Fellow Best Picture Oscar nominee The Brutalist made another $412,301 (down 55% from last frame) for a $14.1 million domestic total.
Just in time for Valentine's Day, Babygirl expanded back into 262 theaters and grossed $97,751 for a $28.06 million domestic total. No Other Land fell 32% in its third frame, grossing $62,975 from 25 theaters for a $2,332 per theater average. Anora finally seems to be holding on decently as its award season domination continues (it won the WGA Award for Best Original Screenplay this weekend!), as it dipped only 3% this weekend to gross another $57,000 for a $15.41 million total. Universal Language, an excellent new absurdist comedy, got off to a robust $41,120 start at two locations for a $20,560 per theater average. Armand, meanwhile, cratered in its expansion to 230 locations grossing just $40,025 over the weekend for a dismal $174 per theater average. This one's now grossed $65,975. Parthenope has already hit the end of the line two weekends into its run, with the title only grossed $38,551 from 14 locations this weekend for a meager $2,754 per theater average. Over ten days of domestic play, Parthenope has now grossed $70,457.
The top ten movies this weekend grossed $153 million, which is a far cry from many pre-COVID President's Day weekend frames. For instance, these numbers are 14% behind the $162.7 million haul of February 13-15, 2009. They’re also 12.5% behind February 14-16, 2014's $160.42 million gross. This weekend was at least up almost 50% from both February 15-17, 2019 when Alita: Battle Angel ruled the marketplace and the February 14-16, 2020 frame when Sonic the Hedgehog blew away all expectations. This is also by far the biggest President's Day weekend frame of the 2020s and more than doubled last year's $69.39 million gross when Bob Marley: One Love topped the landscape.
Of course, those achievements don’t take into account inflation. President's Day weekends from ten years ago or earlier that really outgrossed this past frame (like February 12-14, 2010 or February 13-15, 2015) severely underscore how, even when considering raw grosses, there are still underlying problems with getting people into theaters and supplying multiplexes with a variety of appealing movies. Certainly a lighter rom-com like Valentine’s Day or He’s Just Not That Into You could’ve further bolstered the marketplace.
This was 2024's first really lively weekend (and its first to exceed $100 million for a three-day frame) and thankfully that was due to factors beyond just a new Marvel Studios movie opening to $88.5 million. Titles like Paddington in Peru, Heart Eyes, Dog Man, and Ne Zha 2 brought in people to their local theaters. Let’s work on expanding that level of variety further, especially since Brave New World clearly indicated that Marvel Cinematic Universe movies will no longer carry a single month of moviegoing like they did in 2018 and 2019. To date, February 2024 has grossed roughly a little over $300 million and (if the next 12 days aren't totally disastrous) has a good shot at being the first post-2020 February to crack $500 million in North America.