Oscars 2017: Predictions

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Who Will Win

Most would think that August Willson’s Fences would be the clear-cut winner for writing an adapted screenplay, but we say not so fast. Entertainment Weekly broke the news that Moonlight would not be eligible for the original screenplay group in the Academy Awards. Barry Jenkins adopted Moonlight from Tarell Alvin McCraney’s play In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue. The Academy felt despite the play never being produced; Moonlight was still an adaptation from McCraney work. In all honesty, I completely agree. With Moonlight’s change of category, this might be the nail in the coffin for Fences.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
Who Will Win

With Moonlight out of the original screenplay category, this leaves only two real contenders, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. Many will argue that La La Land is the front-runner for this category, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Manchester by the Sea screenplay delivers a drama with fleshed out characters and a complete story. The story deals with the main character’s loss of a brother, wife, and community than add raising a teenager alone. It’s the combination of these plots and subplots make it the reason Manchester by the Sea should win.

FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Who Will Win

I’m unsure why Arrival is on this list for film editing. Anyone who watched the movie knows the film at times, drags unnecessarily. There should have been a lot more editing done for this almost two-hour movie. The only two films in real competition in this category are Hacksaw Ridge and La La Land. The realistic and yet brutal portrayal of World War II in Hacksaw Ridge is exceptional. With so many moving parts to this film they still managed to keep the story moving and not get bogged down. To La La Land‘s credit, it’s snappy stage musical editing allowed the movie to go from scene to scene almost seamlessly. I’m going to give Hacksaw Ridge the edge in the group just due to its complexity.