Could Captain Marvel gross $1 billion?

Although ticket sales have only just begun, Captain Marvel is starting strong, signaling that things look bright for the film’s box office.

For those worrying that Captain Marvel might somehow flop or underperform in the box office, breathe. Hey, it’s entirely valid to worry about such things; box office returns help determine what gets a sequel or what properties get to continue in development. Moreover, Captain Marvel is under quite a bit of pressure as the first Marvel Cinematic Universe film led by a woman instead of a man. Sure, Ant-Man got a sequel, but that’s no guarantee of anything.

It’s still early days yet, but per Mashable and Atom Tickets, pre-sales are working in the favor of Carol Danvers, Maria Rambeau, Goose, and everyone else in the film. In fact, they’re working so much in the movie’s favor that it now trails only Avengers: Infinity War in day-one advance sales for Atom’s service. Mashable posits that it could outsell Infinity War by virtue of having more time on sale, and that could very well be true. However, how does that translate into actual box office sales?

Since there’s a scarcity of superhero movies led by women, there’s only one recent comparable film, and that’s DC’s Wonder Woman. In 2017 dollars, the film grossed $821 million worldwide and even had an opening weekend over $100 million. Looking at the MCU’s unadjusted numbers, a number like that for Captain Marvel would place it in the top-10-grossing-MCU films. If it actually ends up being comparable to Avengers: Infinity War, then a top 5 finish isn’t outside the realm of possibility.

That would require grossing over $1 billion. However, Aquaman is currently making a push to cross that mark, suggesting that somewhat unique origin stories have something to offer. For Aquaman, it’s the visuals. For Captain Marvel, it may very well be the Avengers connection. There’s no time to wait and rent it, and though Endgame will likely contextualize Carol Danvers enough to make sense, the fuller story will come from having seen both films.

The film hasn’t yet entered tracking on sites like Box Office Pro, but keep an eye on Captain Marvel as we get closer to its March 8 release date.