What do the U.S. midterm election results mean for Trump?

There are many things to consider about the 2018 midterm election results. For Trump and the White House, these questions could have serious answers.

One of the biggest questions of the 2018 midterm elections focused in on the President. For all that candidates emphasized their own stances and those of opponents, many also chose to position themselves in relation to Trump. Were they pro-Trump conservatives? Anti-Trump progressives? Common sense folk working to bring reason back to Washington?

In many ways, a lot of people are taking this election as a judgement of Trump himself. It’s already been a dramatic first two years of his term, with allegations of Russian meddling, late-night Twitter screeds from the White House, and divisive takes on immigration, women’s rights, the economy, and more.

With such an administration dominating the political news and public consciousness, it’s easy to see how voters might take that same judgment (good or bad) and apply it to other politicians. There has been some debate as to whether or not that view is entirely fair, especially given the number of surprises and tight races in many of this year’s elections.

Considering that Democrats made some significant wins, but perhaps not enough to call it a “blue wave”, it’s worth considering. Still, there are some ties between voters’ perceptions of President Trump and his administration, and how last night’s politicians fared in their elections.

Partisanship

If nothing else, political divisions, arguably powered by presidential rhetoric, seemed to power quite a few voters. Now, more than ever, Americans are politically divided and apt to vote along partisan lines.

So, what did this election mean for Trump? Republicans managed to hold on to their majority in the Senate, but lost control of the House. With Democrats in control, the House of Representatives is far less likely to vote in favor of conservative or Republican bills. It’s unlikely that the House will help with hard-line immigration legislation or the repeal of Obamacare.

So, if Trump wants to make any more legislative achievements over the next two years, he’s going to have to play nicer. That could mean he reaches across party lines and starts moving towards the middle of the aisle, politically speaking.

Then again, it could mean more attempts to strong-arm changes via executive order and, possibly, the judicial branch. The President still has the right to appoint federal judges, meaning that we’re likely to see quite a few conservatives take judicial appointments for at least two more years.

With Democrats losing a few seats in the Senate, it will also get easier for presidential appointments to make it through the confirmation process. New high-level officials, like a more compliant Attorney General to replace Jeff Sessions, could start turning up relatively soon.

Sessions, who has recused himself from participating in the Russia investigation, has not done much to stop independent counsel Robert S. Mueller’s work. Another A.G., however, might not be so shy about blocking Mueller and his team.

House Intelligence Committee examinations

Trump is almost certainly going to face increased scrutiny for his part in the 2016 presidential elections. The House Intelligence Committee will be taken over by Rep. Adam Schiff (Calif.), who has already said that he will be investigating the president further.

He may also choose to take more of an interest in foreign affairs, especially in the Middle East. Trump’s approach to international politics hasn’t generated much acclaim from at-home politicians, and a Democrat-controlled House could push for a change in approach from the White House.

Looking towards 2020

As for re-election, the picture is muddled. Trump has remained highly partisan and controversial. That governing style didn’t turn off voters in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, who chose more Republicans to lead them. It may have also helped some Senate elections, but not others.

For instance, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is set to win again, even though he’s representing the reliably red West Virginia. And some elections, such as the race for Florida governor between winning Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Andrew Gillum, were perhaps too close to call an unequivocal victory for any party.

When 2020 comes around, Trump may face trouble in suburban districts, which often went for Democrats. But, he can also blame a Democratic-controlled House for some issues that pop up, like a downturn in the economy or a lack of legislative action. In two years, that could either prove to be a convenient political foil, or a persistent problem that will dog him until the next election day.