18 races to follow for the 2018 midterms

11. Missouri Senate

Candidates: Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill vs. Republican challenger Josh Hawley

Like Joe Donnelly, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill isn’t likely to be resting easy right now. The Democratic lawmaker is sitting in the midst of a markedly Republican-friendly state, staring down a race so tight that some polls leave her and challenger Josh Hawley tied in a dead heat.

So far, it looks as if the race for Missouri Senator is going to live up to its billing as one of the tightest in the nation. After all, it’s not just a single poll showing them to be neck-in-neck. In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a poll that differentiates between the two by more than a terrifying (to the candidates, anyway) four percentage points.

As a Democrat, McCaskill can expect plenty of support from more liberal regions in her state, including big settlements like Kansas City and St. Louis. But then there is the more rural southwestern part of the state, long considered to be a Republican stronghold. Republican Josh Hawley will surely garner plenty of votes from constituents there.

What makes things complicated are the other regions of the state, which variously lean left or right. More centrist regions and blocs of voters have often made this Senate seat a tenuous one, with parties exchanging control of it on a regular basis. Even seemingly small missteps can make or break an election.

McCaskill herself looked to fumble in the 2012 election, but then she was set against Rep. Todd Akin, who gained notoriety when he said that women couldn’t get pregnant after a “legitimate rape.” To be fair, that turned out to be more than a minor mistake, but it goes to show that a single bad interview could turn everything towards a different course.

Campaign website for Claire McCaskill: https://clairemccaskill.com/
Campaign website for Josh Hawley: https://joshhawley.com/