18 races to follow for the 2018 midterms

12. Indiana

Candidates: Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly vs. Republican challenger Mike Braun

While many of the races on this list hinge on a Republican incumbent facing a Democratic challenger, Indiana has it the other way around. Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly is a Democrat who, despite an anticipated though still uncertain wave of Democratic support, is looking at an uphill battle. His November face-off against Mike Braun is poised to be difficult, even after a primary season marked by low blows and high-strung feeling.

First, Trump won Indiana’s electoral votes in 2016 by a healthy 20 points. Where other states handed over their votes by slimmer margins, this contrasting support for a Republican candidate must make Donnelly and his campaign team think twice.

As such, Donnelly must play to centrist values. He’s voted against Trump’s tax reform plan, which could make him unpopular with right-leaning voters. Meanwhile, Donnelly himself leans right on some social issues, such as abortion rights, making him unpopular with another subset of voters entirely.

Mike Braun, the Republican candidate, secured his party’s nomination after a primary season marred by infighting. Many saw Braun as an outsider candidate for good or bad, pitched against Republican insiders Rep. Luke Messer and Rep. Todd Rokita.

Even before that, it was clear there were many Republican hopefuls clamoring to take their place in the Senate and unseat a member of the opposing party.

So, where does this leave us? The most recent polls show Donnelly with an ever-so-slight lead over Braun. Still, with a month to go, what will happen to those points? This race, which is looking more and more dramatic as Election Day approaches, could still go either way. Chances are good that we won’t know the outcome for sure until Nov. 7.

Campaign website for Joe Donnelly: https://joeforindiana.com/
Campaign website for Mike Braun: https://www.mikebraunforindiana.com/