18 races to follow for the 2018 midterms

13. California’s 48th District

Candidates: Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher vs. Democratic challenger Harley Rouda

If you are only picking a few races to follow this November, be it for your sanity or simply a lack of time, then keep an eye on the election for Representative of California’s 48th Congressional District. Though the 48th is currently represented by a Republican, the same voters went for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016, making this a tenuous balance. When Democrats talk of a “blue wave,” that conversation almost always includes the seat up for grabs here.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is therefore striving for a careful balance. California as a whole is a pretty left-leaning state, but he is situated in a traditionally Republican district. Yet, tradition can always go out of the window in a high-stakes, high-tension election. Even a 30-year career as a politician may not be enough to support Rohrabacher’s bit for reelection.

Rohrabacher has aligned himself pretty firmly with President Trump, a fact which will either help or hurt him with a wide array of voters. He also has some unfortunate ties with Russians, including accused spy Maria Butina. Could that push his supporters over the edge?

Democrat Harley Rouda just narrowly won the primary, pushing ahead in a field crowded with progressive and liberal candidates. He’s also a former Republican, which may make voters suspicious, given how Rouda seems to have changed with the shifting demographics of California and this district in particular.

However, he also has the endorsement of President Barack Obama and other progressives. Furthermore, polling shows Rouda and Rohrabacher in close competition, with only a few percentage points to spare between them.

Campaign website for Dana Rohrabacher: http://www.rohrabacher.com/
Campaign website for Harley Rouda: https://www.harleyforcongress.com/