18 races to follow for the 2018 midterms

15. Pennsylvania’s 17th District

Candidates: Democratic challenger Conor Lamb vs. Republican incumbent Keith Rothfus

Earlier in this year, the question of a Democratic “blue wave” seemed unsteady, to say the least. Consider how ridiculous it felt in mid-2016 to contemplate a Trump-led White House, for instance. After that presidential election upended many peoples’ expectations, the business of political prognosticating seemed silly at best.

Then again, American politics oftentimes follows certain trends. It’s wise to step back and think of things in the bigger picture and always understand that surprises happen (humbleness is a virtue, after all) — but predictions aren’t completely useless, perhaps.

That’s what may have spelled out the rise of Conor Lamb, whose nomination and popularity now appears to be part of a genuine wave of promising Democratic and left-leaning candidates. That doesn’t mean this newcomer won’t be facing serious competition, in the form of established Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus.

What makes this potentially unnerving for both Lamb and Rothfus is the recent redistricting of their state. Lamb first won his party’s nomination in Pennsylvania’s 18th District. Rothfus had secured his election in the state’s 12th District. Now, both are in the 17th Congressional District.

Voters in the new 17th District are certainly different from the ones in the 12th. The 17th includes the relatively liberal, left-leaning suburbs of big-city Pittsburgh. Wouldn’t you know it, those same suburbs helped Lamb move forward in the special election.

However, nothing is a done deal until election night itself. If 2016 taught us anything, it’s not to make assumptions until all the votes are in. Both Lamb and Rothfus are facing a tighter race now than many would have anticipated even a few short months ago.

Campaign website for Conor Lamb: https://conorlamb.com/
Campaign website for Keith Rothfus: https://www.keithrothfus.com/