Is Lionsgate hoping star power will save Chaos Walking from the same fate as the Divergent series?

In order for Chaos Walking to be really huge, it needs to entice regular moviegoers and lovers of the original novel alike, but will Lionsgate pull it off?

Doug Liman left Justice League Dark to direct Chaos Walking, which will star Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s Tom Holland and Star Wars‘ Daisy Ridley. Right off the bat, we can see those are two big names. But Lionsgate also just added Nick Jonas, which … probably doesn’t matter. Just because people may know his name, it’s not like he’s a big box office draw in any way. It does call into question whether Lionsgate wants to corral as many “big” names as they can, though.

Why? To launch a franchise that doesn’t go south like the Divergent series, that went so badly toward the end, they didn’t even finish making the last film and opted to go to a television series instead.

However, I’m willing to bet that any name added to this cast won’t help them pull out a win. It’s just not that easy anymore. Break even? Sure. Be successful against a small, reasonable budget? Sure. But it’s not going to be a runaway hit like The Hunger Games, that’s for sure. And all anyone wants to do when they adapt movies like this is to be the next Hunger Games.

Let’s break it down:

For this exercise, we’re going to be looking at three movies that have come out recently, are YA novel adaptations and kind of have the same vibe as Chaos Walking. And of course, these are The Hunger Games, Maze Runner and Divergent.

Obviously, we all know The Hunger Games changed the game. In a post-Twilight world, The Hunger Games gave us this very glamorous yet very bleak world. Rounded by an incredible cast that included folks like Donald Sutherland, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks and Stanley Tucci, The Hunger Games put a female heroine from and center and is still an unparalleled franchise when it comes to YA novel adaptations. After securing $2.96 billion at the box office across four films, Katniss Everdeen set the bar for not only female action heroines, but also book adaptations.

And once everyone saw all the success she raked in, studios clambered for a chance to launch a franchise of their own. The Hunger Games came out in 2012, then in 2014, we saw The Maze Runner. The novel by James Dashner picked up quite a lot of buzz, so it came as no surprise when 20th Century Fox earned a respectable $348 million worldwide against a $34 million budget. Yet, The Maze Runner‘s earnings still didn’t come anywhere near The Hunger Games. Though it came a lot closer to smaller films like Ender’s Game or Percy Jackson, production on the third film stopped when lead actor Dylan O’Brien was injured on set and it looks like American Assassin will do more for his career anyway.

Still, The Maze Runner ended way more respectably than the Divergent series. The franchise originally showed promise, featured a nice cast, and of course, a female lead. Unfortunately, Lionsgate struggled to market it properly, and by the third film, they were just hemorrhaging money domestically. Worldwide, Allegiant earned $100 million less than its predecessor, Insurgent, with only $66 million domestically.

But what about Doug Liman?

Alright, Doug Liman’s cool. But his biggest hit is Mr. and Mrs. Smith, which made all that money based on the controversy surrounding the Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie scandal. The first one, I mean.

Then his second-highest earner is Edge of Tomorrow, which you know, earned a sequel but isn’t exactly a huge hit. In fact, the foreign box office saved Edge of Tomorrow. Plus, Liman hasn’t worked with Lionsgate yet. At least, not to release a big-budget film.

So you take Doug Liman and two lead actors whose success belongs more to the franchises they’re known for, and basically, you maybe have a solid $40-60 million debut at the box office. I think the success will be based on whether they have a conservative budget or not. Most likely, Lionsgate will probably struggle with marketing again, just like Divergent and Power Rangers.

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I mean, the numbers don’t lie and the market for sci-fi films happens to be competitive and difficult to navigate. Just look at The Dark Tower. It’s just not easy. And as somebody who would jump in front of a train for Daisy Ridley, I’m not particularly excited for this.

Actually, Chaos Walking sounds more like an omen than the name of the film. On the other hand, they like just started production. The silver lining, which I think needs to be played up more, is that they have Mads Mikkelsen.

Otherwise, does anyone else feel like this is a box office bomb waiting to happen? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.