Oscars 2017: Dark Horse/Upset Predictions

Michelle Williams and Casey Affleck in Machester by the Sea. Image via Amazon Studios

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Michelle Williams

Frontrunner: Viola Davis

Potential Upset: Michelle Williams

Listen, no one is stopping the Viola train. She has been cleaning up all awards season and it is well deserved. But if anyone was a threat to Viola Davis’ win, it’d be Michelle Williams.

Early reviews for Manchester by the Sea raved about Williams’ performance, claiming that the Oscar was as good as hers. And it’s no wonder why: it’s the kind of powerful, showy performance the Oscars love. Williams is a small player in Manchester by the Sea, but her confrontation with Casey Affleck towards the end of the film is a scene heavy with emotion that left an impact on viewers. In fact, the studio released that scene online before the movie came out to try and entice audiences.

It’s a scene-stealing performance from Williams, who is a well-liked and respected actress in Hollywood. She’s been Oscar-nominated four times now, for Brokeback Mountain, Blue Valentine, My Week with Marilyn and now Manchester by the Sea. She’s also a recent Tony nominee for her stage work, and often considered an underrated actress and one of the better actresses of her generation.

There’s goodwill towards her and the film (Manchester by the Sea is likely to take home a few more awards than Davis’ Fences, anyway). There’s also the chance that Oscar voters will lash out against Davis’ obvious category fraud since she’s a lead performer in a supporting category. (This happens every year, especially with young performers, but this one seems pretty blatant.)

Williams is still a longshot, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.