Who has the best chance of sitting on the Iron Throne? (Week 3)

While most contenders are still in the game, let’s discuss who’s got the hottest claim. Each week, we’ll break down the front-runner for the Iron Throne.

Warning: This article contains spoilers for Game of Thrones‘ most recent episode, “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.”

It is just four days away now. The Battle for Winterfell promises to carry with it the most astronomical stakes a Westerosi battle has ever shouldered. And with only four episodes left to vie for the throne, it is sure to sing the swan song of some long standing characters, as well as change what we know about potential endings to this point.

That being said,  this is the perfect place to take stock of how far we have come and see which characters are likely to win the long game. Join me each week as I weigh the latest episode against the odds to pick the “winner” of Game of Thrones — noting a major favorite, as well as a potential underdog.

Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen – Photo: Helen Sloan/HBO

FAVORITE: Daenerys Targaryen

Even with Jon Snow revealing the truth about his parentage to her this episode, I still give this week’s front-runner slot to Daenerys. I think the audience was collectively concerned as her reaction seemed less than pleased, but that will create the tension that the star-crossed lovers must traverse in their arcs this season. The fact that this traversal is still laid out before us earns Dany this spot.

Her fate truly lies in her own hands as to whether she takes the Iron Throne, and she must choose to break the cycle of corruption to come with the seat (especially with her familial history to consider). The Northerners already distrust her for being the daughter of the Mad King, Aerys II. It is up to her to defect from that reputation.

If Daenerys takes Jon’s confession in stride, her and her advisers could easily find a diplomatic solution to the issue. Marriage was mentioned by Davos and Varys last episode, and the two are undeniably in love. If not, Jon does not seem incredibly eager to be King in the first place. He has always been reluctant to take positions of power, but it’s this same humility that makes him such an endearing and effective leader.

However, Daenerys has not been the quickest to compromise in the past, and her recent behavior has shown a much more tyrannical side of her campaign, e.g. Randyll and Dickon Tarly’s execution. Samwell’s contribution last week shows us there are those who are highly concerned with this behavior as well. But once again, because it will ultimately be Daenerys’ decisions that make or break her claim, I find it hard to put her anywhere but the front of the pack. If Jon has a stronger claim to the throne, it is still going to be her reaction to it which bears the ramifications of it. Proving to be a selfless ruler in the days to come would give the northerners no reason to dispute her dream.

We all hope she will choose a path of light over one of fire and blood, but this is assuming any of them will survive the coming battle to begin with.

Joe Dempsie as Gendry – Photo: Helen Sloan/HBO

UNDERDOG: Gendry

Before I close each week, I would like to give a shout out to a contender that the odds are very much against. This week is an excellent week to highlight Gendry, a bastard of Robert Baratheon, who has a legitimate claim to the throne thanks to Robert’s Rebellion. This is no longer a secret to the rest of the characters either, as he confesses it to Arya before their buzz-worthy hook up.

If Daenerys does choose the path of fire and blood, it would show Westeros once again how needed Robert’s Rebellion was, and if the tenements of that upheaval are in turn upheld, Gendry has the strongest claim to throne in the land. If his parentage was common knowledge before, then he would have been put on the throne long before the illegitimate kings, Joffrey and Tommen. He escaped Lannister execution for this reason before, and if he can keep his head (literally and figuratively) this season, then he has a dark horse claim to the Iron Throne. That’s a stronger one than the seat’s current holder: Cersei Lannister

With only four episodes left the stakes have never been higher, and one mistake could spell the end of characters we have been with for nearly a decade now. If you asked for my personal dream ending, there would be no Iron Throne at all. As Daenerys herself said in “Hardhome”:

"Lannister, Targaryen, Baratheon, Stark, Tyrell – they’re all just spokes on a wheel. This one’s on top, then that one’s on top, and on and on it spins, crushing those on the ground… I’m not going to stop the wheel. I’m going to break the wheel."

But throne or no throne, it is still Daenerys who wields the greatest chance for change.

Do you think differently? What would be your dream ending? I’ll be in the comments to discuss it all, so please join us. Your groundbreaking theory just might bust it open!

Game of Thrones continues next Sunday at 9 p.m. ET on HBO.

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