Terrifier 3 is the number one movie in America...that's a sentence you can say now

Did you know there are no reported box office numbers from Terrifier's original theatrical run back in 2018? Art the Clown's first feature-length movie made such a minimal box office ripple that there are no reported domestic box office figures for it beyond its 2023 re-issue. What a difference six years makes. Terrifier 2 turned into a sleeper hit in October 2022 and now Terrifier 3, armed with a $2 million budget and a marketing campaign only aimed at Bloody Disgusting subscribers, topped the entire domestic box office for the weekend. You read that right, the grisly unrated carnage of Terrifier 3 was the number-one movie in America.

With an $18 million domestic opening, Terrifier 3 has already left the $10.9 million domestic lifetime haul of Terrifier 2 in the dust. These are also outstanding numbers for super indie and niche distributor Cineverse. No shocker why Terrifier 3 became such a massive hit. Terrifier 2 was a smash. It’s Halloween, people want more frightening things. Meanwhile, shifting the action to Christmastime ensured this title offered something different from its predecessors. Even with those qualities, it’s still staggering to consider a horror movie this gnarly is now the biggest thing in America. Moviegoers are getting freaky with their horror choices and the box office is reaping the rewards of that.

One other observation about Terrifier 3’s debut: one year ago, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour opened to massive numbers courtesy of distributor AMC Theatres. Since then, Civil War ($68.6 million) and Longlegs ($74 million), from A24 and Neon, respectively, each cracked $68+ million in North America. Fathom Events got Coraline to a $33 million domestic gross. Toho released Godzilla Minus One to roaring good domestic numbers while GKIDS distributed The Boy and the Heron last December, which grossed more than Disney’s 2022 family movie tentpole Strange World. Now Cineverse’s Terrifier 3 has far exceeded the opening weekends of 2024 major studio releases like Night Swim, Speak No Evil, and The First Omen.

Over the last 52 weeks, several studios outside of the five major studios (and also Lionsgate) have scored box office hits offering people something different from the norm than more Joker, The Crow, and reheated Kevin Costner Western leftovers. Granted, this obviously isn’t a total David vs. Goliath scenario in every respect given that AMC is itself a gigantic conglomerate. Still, A24, Neon, and Cineverse are clearly satisfying audiences hungry for theatrical entertainment frustrated with the biggest studios' limited (both in terms of numbers and genres) annual movie slates. If Disney, Warner Bros., and Lionsgate do not want to act like real movie studios anymore, other entities are around to pick up the slack. Like Art the Clown.

The Wild Robot dipped just 29% this weekend for a $13.44 million third weekend haul and an $83.7 million 17-day domestic total. That's a noticeably better third-weekend drop than other late September animated movies such as Smallfoot. Great word of mouth is kicking in on this title, which should have a healthy theatrical run over the next month. At a minimum, a $120-125 million domestic total is in the cards.

Joker: Folie a Deux joined Halloween Kills and 2009’s Friday the 13th this weekend as only the third movie in history to open in over 3,000 theaters yet fall 80+% in its second weekend. The bad news just keeps rolling in for this Todd Phillips-directed flop after it flailed out the last frame with just $37 million. Grossing just $7.055 million this weekend, Joker 2 fell a steep 81%. After ten days, Folie a Deux has grossed just $51.6 million, less than what it was projected to gross over its opening weekend. A domestic total of barely over $65 million is in Joker’s future, an astonishing wipe-out for the $200 million budgeted tentpole.

Narrowly behind Joker was another much older Warner Bros holdover, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. Now in its sixth weekend of release, the latest Tim Burton movie grossed another $7.050 million. Its domestic total now stands at a whopping $275.6 million. Can it procure another $24.4 million to get to $300 million domestically? That doesn’t look out of the question right now. 

A slew of additional new wide-release releases (six counting Saturday Night’s wide-release expansion) tried to leave a dent at the box office this frame. None of them broke out, with the highest of the non-Terrifier newcomers being Piece by Piece, a strange little $16 million-budgeted creation. With just $3.81 million on opening weekend, this Lego Pharrell Williams biopic had an outstanding debut for a documentary. As a general release launching in a little over 1,800 theaters, though, this is an underwhelming launch. This one will vanish rather quickly from the marketplace. Transformers One dipped 32% this weekend for a $3.65 million fourth frame total and a $52.8 million domestic haul.

Next up was Saturday Night, which grossed just $3.4 million this weekend. This Jason Reitman directorial effort failed to translate its great limited-release numbers into wider success. Period piece movies about TV shows and other inside baseball entertainment material tend to struggle to find an audience.  Even back in 1994, when adult-skewing movies regularly made money, Quiz Show couldn't get above $24.7 million in its domestic run. A super mainstream rom-com like Morning Glory topped out at $31 million, while Best Picture Oscar nominee Frost/Nixon struggled to get to $18.6 million.

Saturday Night’s wide release bow isn’t surprising given historical precedents, but it is disappointing given its $30 million budget. Some good news for Reitman, though: this could become his first non-Ghostbusters directorial effort since Labor Day in January 2014 to exceed $10 million domestically. My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next opened to $3 million this frame. Not anything impressive but it’s $3 million more in the marketplace. 

Disney re-released The Nightmare Before Christmas in 1,700 locations this weekend and it actually outgrossed multiple new wide releases. With another $2.3 million, Christmas has now grossed $89.9 million. Over the next decade, don't be surprised if the Mouse House is able to get Jack Skellington and friends to $100+ million domestically. These re-releases are just too profitable. Speak No Evil, in its final weekend in the top ten, dropped 46% for another $1.5 million and a $35.2 million domestic total. It’s got another $2-3 million in the tank before it inevitably gets sent to Peacock in time for Halloween.

After lots of legal haggling and endless breathless Deadline/Hollywood Reporter news pieces, The Apprentice finally opened in domestic theaters. The result was a disastrous $1.58 million at 1,740 theaters for a per-theater average just below $900. Nearly 30 years ago, post-JFK Oliver Stone and post-Silence of the Lambs Anthony Hopkins couldn’t get audiences to come out in droves for Nixon. 16 years ago, W. underperformed at the box office. Unless narrative movies about POTUS are cozy hagiographic exercises like Reagan or set in the distant past like Lincoln, they tend to flame out at the box office.

General audiences tend to not want to see modern political figures dominating TV airwaves at their local multiplex. The Apprentice also suffered from a dismal (practically non-existent) marketing campaign and reviews that were more average than euphoric. Ironically, a movie highlighting the point-of-view of oppressed groups targeted by Trump rather than ceding a whole movie to that dangerous figure probably would’ve made way more at the box office…

Average Joe also tanked this weekend, grossing just $1.15 million at 1,713 locations for a disastrous per-theater average of $651. Fathom Events has had a lot of big hits in the last two years, this just wasn't one of them. The Substance is officially a box office sensation now that it dipped just 17% in its fourth weekend of release. That kind of small drop is unheard of for an R-rated horror movie. Grossing another $1.14 million, it's now grossed $11.7 million domestically. This sleeper hit (distributed by Mubi) reinforces my earlier statements regarding Terrifier 3: people want something fresh in the marketplace. Major studios refuse to provide it (Universal decided to drop distribution rights on The Substance), and audiences are getting their fixes elsewhere. The Substance could make a run at $15 million domestically, which would be astonishing.

White Bird: A Wonder Story fell 52% this weekend and grossed just $755,000. After ten days, it’s grossed just $3 million. Last week’s breakout hit Look Back fell 65% but that’s fine after overperforming the previous frame. Accumulating another $239,320, this one’s now grossed $1.54 million domestically. Megalopolis, meanwhile, collapsed 79% to gross just $230,000 this frame. Its domestic total now stands at only $7.3 million.

We Live in Time opened to $225,911 at five locations this frame for a $45,182 per theater average. This is a strong debut, but the jury is still out on whether general moviegoers will show up for its wide-release expansion on Friday.

The top ten movies this weekend grossed an alarmingly small $62 million. Joker: Folie a Deux and a dearth of compelling new releases have absolutely crushed the marketplace and sent this mid-October weekend spiraling to roughly 42% below this same weekend in 2021 when the marketplace was ruled by simultaneous Peacock release Halloween Kills. It's also below this same weekend in October 2022...how is the domestic box office delivering worse weekend hauls than it did two and three years ago?!?

As I say so often, the answer is the movies themselves. We had a slew of new releases this weekend, but only Terrifier 3 really stood out as a must-see. The rest aimed too old and/or had too meager of a marketing campaign to make a dent. Plus, it has to be said, that the biggest new releases are aimed largely at just white people. almost half white moviegoers. Was there anything in Saturday Night or The Apprentice that would be appealing to moviegoers of color? It’s not just that this October 2024 new release trend ignores how the modern theatrical cinema landscape is ruled by younger and non-white audiences. It also explains why these titles aren’t doing so well. So many dramas aimed at older white people are just cannibalizing each other.

Two years ago, Ticket to Paradise did solid box office numbers in a late October launch. Naturally, because that movie was perceived as “girly”, Hollywood wrote off its success as a fluke and theatrical rom-coms are still scarce. That’s just the kind of title the marketplace could use right now. Here’s hoping Smile 2 and Venom: The Last Dance (not to mention potential crossover arthouse titles like Anora and Conclave) helped close out the month on a positive note. So far, October 2024, halfway through the month, is narrowly underneath $200 million, a dismally small haul. Hollywood, finally learn your lesson: no more deferring an entire month to just one potential future blockbuster. Some counterprogramming to Joker: Folie a Deux could’ve salvaged this month’s box office run and helped theater owners/employees immensely.