After bountiful Thanksgiving and Christmas 2024 box office frames, Martin Luther King Jr. weekend 2025 was absolutely abysmal. The total domestic haul for this weekend was the lowest for an MLK weekend frame in decades, not since the late 90s have numbers been this bad (and that's before adjusting for inflation!) The last six weeks have made it clear that people want to go to the movies. When the new release pickings are slim, though, folks just won't go to their local cinema.
This reality meant that a five-week-old movie may reclaim the top spot at the domestic box office when the dust settles and the actual box office numbers come in. Right now, the box office estimates only have $100,000 separating the top two movies. They could switch positions when all is said and done. For now, though, is estimated to become the number one movie in America this weekend with an $11.6 million launch. An R-rated comedy topping the domestic box office?? What a concept!
As late as 2018, that opening would've been considered "eh" for a big screen comedy considering it opened beneath The Spy Who Dumped Me's $12.1 million bow or Overboard's $14.7 million debut. In 2025, when big-screen comedies of any kind are scarce, it’s a relief to see it open to eight-digit figures!
Big screen comedies have been stuck in a no-win cycle created by major studios. These were the first motion pictures (through The Lovebirds, Coming 2 America, Barb and Star, etc.) dumped to streaming and PVOD when COVID shut theaters down. Since then, studios have sent these titles to the small screen. That’s left few opportunities for comedies to prove they have still theatrical box office value. Studios don’t put comedies in theater, thus, studio executives assume audiences don’t want big screen comedies.
The $14 million budgeted One of Them Days, a Sony/TriStar release, opening to bigger numbers than Sony’s $110 million budgeted Kraven the Hunter should show there’s still a hunger for these kinds of movies. Big screen comedies pulling in superhero movie-sized grosses like The Hangover have always been anomalies. Even a feature like Forgetting Sarah Marshall didn’t crack $70 million in its original domestic run. These are movies that have solid theatrical runs and, if they’re made well, have long long lives after their theatrical releases. Make these titles with reasonable budgets (maybe the days of Grown Ups costing $85 million are gone...and that’s a good thing!), put a lot of them in the marketplace, and actually shoot them LIKE movies (no more titles like Strays or Bros where they’re shot like TV shows), people will start coming back to theatrical comedies again.
In its own way, One of Them Days provides some real hope for this genre’s theatrical viability. C’mon Sony, the future of your studio is in Keke Palmer comedies, not Kraven spinoff’s.
Mufasa: The Lion King came in second place (for now) with an $11.53 million fifth-weekend gross. That’s off just 19% from the last frame! Mufasa has now grossed $205.8 million after 31 days of release. Who would have thought that this title would ever come close to those figures after its $35.4 million bow? A lack of January 2025 competition is unquestionably helping this feature, but it could still get as high as $235-240 million domestically when all is said and done.
Wolf Man, meanwhile, only grossed $10.5 million over the weekend, a deeply disappointing haul that's less than half of the opening of director Leigh Whannell's last Universal Monsters update, The Invisible Man. Among Blumhouse titles, Wolf Man opened below Night Swim, Fantasy Island, and The Gift. It's also the third Blumhouse/Universal title to open below $12 million in the last 54 weeks. I'm beginning to think orienting Blumhouse Productions to focus almost exclusively on remakes/reboots/adaptations of SXSW short films was a bad idea!
Wolf Man was plagued with problems from the start, including the limited box office potential of non-Twilight werewolf movies. Everyone knows I’m a Christopher Abbott fan for life, but he’s also not a massive box office draw for the general public which means Wolf Man didn’t have an Elisabeth Moss to hinge its marketing around. To boot, the 2010 feature The Wolfman meant that Wolf Man didn’t have the specialness of being the first 21st century Wolfman movie. This was just a deeply miscalculated exercise from top to bottom. At least Wolf Man cost only $25 million to make.
Universal, it’s time for a come to Jesus moment. Having Universal executives say “we’re exploiting the Universal Monsters catalog” sounds cool to shareholders, I’m sure, but it’s not producing either box office hits or crowdpleaser hits. The Invisible Man in 2020 worked, but that was the exception, not the rule. In the last 21 years, Van Helsing, Abigail, Dracula Untold, Renfield, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, and 2017’s The Mummy, have all failed to make box office waves. Invest in original fresh horror movies from young filmmakers who can carve out films that terrify 2025 moviegoers the same way Dracula or Frankenstein petrified people in the 1930s. Trying to retread these famous movie monsters is not a recipe for box office success.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 sped to $8.6 million in its fifth weekend of release, a terrific 24% dip from last frame. That brings the project to a $216.49 million domestic total. Looks like Sonic the Hedgehog 3 will wrap up its domestic run in the neighborhood of $235-240 million. Rounding out the top five was last weekend's victor, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera. Dropping 56% this weekend, it grossed another $6.6 million for a 10-day $26.1 million domestic haul. The first Den of Thieves, by contrast, dipped only 43% in its second weekend.
Thanks to no new family movie competition and a three-day holiday weekend, Moana 2 eased only 5% this weekend. Grossing another $6.2 million in its eighth weekend of release, Moana 2 has now amassed $442.9 million. It’s also surpassed Shrek 2 now on the all-time highest-grossing animated films domestic chart. Nosferatu kept chowing down on moviegoers this frame as it eased 38% to gross another $4.3 million. It’s now at $89.4 million domestically.
Before it’s projected to tear up the Oscar nominations this Thursday, A Complete Unknown eased only 26% this weekend to gross another $3.79 million. Its domestic haul now stands at $57.57 million. Wicked, in its ninth weekend of release, grossed $3.55 million, a 31% dip from last weekend. It's now grossed $464.5 million, officially making it the highest-grossing movie ever domestically to not hit $1+ billion worldwide. Rounding out the top ten was Babygirl, which had another fantastic weekend-to-weekend hold of just 34% this frame. Grossing $2.02 million this weekend, Babygirl has now grossed $25.36 million.
The Brutalist finally made its way into more theaters this weekend by expanding into 338 locations. It proceeded to gross $1.98 million for a $5,863 per theater average. Not too shabby at all. Its domestic haul now stands at $5.44 million before it even reaches a wide release. The Last Showgirl, in its second weekend of wide release, grossed $893,000 for a domestic cume of roughly $3 million. Meanwhile, The Room Next Door entered wide release and grossed $659,500 from 861 theaters. for a $765 per theater average. Its domestic total now stands at $1.35 million.
September 5 demonstrated a glimmer of promise in its expansion into 120 locations this weekend, as it grossed $365,000 for a per theater average of $3,017. That's on par with its per theater average from last weekend despite adding 100 theaters. Paramount dragging its feet on expanding this one always struck me as weird. Like The Lovely Bones, Hostiles, and A Man Called Otto, September 5 always seemed, to me, like a mainstream movie play where the limited release numbers were immaterial (unlike, say, Nickel Boys and The Brutalist, which needed strong limited release figures to get buzz going). September 5 could just be sold as an "action/political thriller" outside of award season. We’ll see how Paramount does selling this movie in the weeks to come now that it’s grossed $776,000 domestically.
Nickel Boys hit a roadblock in its theatrical run this weekend, as it grossed $297,000 from 240 locations. That resulted in an underwhelming $1,238 per theater average. Nickel Boys was 2024's best non-Hundreds of Beavers movie, please don't miss it on the big screen! This RaMell Ross directorial effort has now grossed $948,782 domestically.
The Wild Robot returned to 1,076 theaters this weekend, one of several theatrical re-expansions over this frame meant to tie into the original January 17 date of this year's Oscars nomination announcement. With that event delayed to Thursday, these theatrical re-launches played to largely empty houses. Wild Robot, for one, grossed only $266,000 for a $247 per theater average. It's already grossed $143.53 million, so who's complaining? Better Man plummeted 76% this frame, grossing just $255,000 from 1,290 locations for a staggeringly terrible $198 per theater average. Its domestic haul now stands at only $1.8 million. The Substance returned to 481 locations and grossed $243,000 for a $505 per theater average and $16.72 million domestic total.
Six months after its domestic launch, finally expanded into 200+ locations this frame by playing in 560 theaters. Unsurprisingly, delaying Sing Sing's theatrical expansion to months after its initial buzz died down didn't serve it well. It only grossed $239,533 from 560 locations for a dismal $428 per theater average. Its domestic total now stands at $3.01 million. Flow eased 26% this weekend to gross $224,500 from 325 locations for a $690 per theater average. It's now grossed $3.36 million domestically.
Anora returned to 536 locations and grossed $183,000 for only a $341 per theater average. It's now amassed $14.8 million domestically. Hard Truths expanded into 121 locations this weekend and grossed $153,197 (a 10% drop from last frame) for a $1,266 per theater average and a $383,151 domestic total. Conclave also re-expanded to 542 locations this weekend and grossed $144,000 for only $266 per theater. It's now grossed $31.69 million in its leggy domestic run.
I'm Still Here had a promising $125,409 debut this frame at five locations for a robust $25,081 per theater average. In its entire domestic run, it's now grossed $153,078. Distributor Blue Fox Entertainment returned to launching kid's movies into wide releases with no marketing to dismal box office numbers this weekend. This time, the studio launched Autumn and the Black Jaguar in 605 theaters for a $121,000 bow for a $200 per theater average. Just three weekends into 2025 and already we have a candidate for the worst wide release launch of the entire year. Grand Theft Hamlet opened in 75 locations to $79,000 for a $1,053 per theater average.
All We Imagine as Light, in its tenth weekend of release, grossed another $47,100 (a 14% dip from last frame) from 34 locations for a $1,385 per theater average. It's now at $919,591 domestically and should hit $1+ million domestically by next weekend. meanwhile, eased 15% this weekend to gross $35,650. Playing at 20 locations this weekend, it procured a $1,783 per theater average and a lifetime domestic haul of $429,751.
The top ten movies this weekend grossed only $70 million, an abysmal haul. January 2019 was a notoriously bleak box office month thanks to a dreary slate of new releases, yet its Martin Luther King Jr. three-day frame was still significantly better than 2025! Heck, 2025's MLK three-day weekend barely surpassed the $68.33 million weekend haul of MLK weekend 2022 when Scream opened against a landscape deprived on new theatrical releases because of COVID-19 surges.
So far, January 2025 has only grossed $386.2 million, an embarrassingly small haul that’s less than half of, say, January 2016 or 2010 at the same point. By the time you're reading this, January 2025 will at least surpass January 2022's $389.78 million total but hitting either January 2024's $495.88 million or January 2023's $584.76 million grosses look comically out of reach. After all, next weekend basically has no new wide releases of note! What a dreary start to the year, especially since further 2025 box office complications are on the horizon with a light load of new releases in March and April 2025. AMC, if you’ve got some must-see concert documentary in your back pocket, now would be a good time to announce it for a late February/March launch. Surely Sabrina Carpenter filmed one of her concert performances!