Black Panther’s nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars, but will it win?

As many had hoped, Black Panther historically gained a nomination for Best Picture at the Oscars. But will the movie beat out the competition this year?

The day has finally come for Black Panther. We’ve been following the movie’s path to success pretty much since last year’s Oscars, watching to see if the buzz around town would carry on long enough for the film to gather real Oscars buzz. With the release of today’s Oscar nominations, the buildup finally paid off as Black Panther indeed landed a nomination for Best Picture.

Black Panther has seven nominations total, ranging from Costume Design to Orignal Song. And all over the internet, people are talking about the movie’s historic achievement of becoming the first superhero movie to land a Best Picture nomination. But still, there’s one last piece of the puzzle missing: Does Black Panther actually have what it takes to win Best Picture?

To put it into perspective, here’s Black Panther‘s competition for Best Picture this year:

• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

Each of these movies has something that the Academy loves to sink its teeth into. True-life American stories, well-acted biopics, period pieces, Alfonso Cuarón, Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale. The list goes on for reasons why these other nominees are practically Best Picture candy to lure the Academy into making a safe choice. And Black Panther, really, has none of that to go on.

Being the first superhero movie nominated for Best Picture alone shows you that the Academy is really stepping out of its comfort zone this year. But my suspicions are that the Academy may not have the bravery to push the movie to become a winner. Aside from all of the favorable traits Black Panther doesn’t have in common with typical Oscars favorites, the Academy had a few major snubs for the movie. Take a look at what I tweeted earlier this morning.

Typically, every movie that gets nominated for Best Picture also has at least one acting or directing nomination to go with it. In just this year’s sample alone, we have the following nominations:

• BlacKkKlansman
  • Actor in a Supporting Role (Adam Driver) Directing (Spike Lee)
• Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Actor in a Leading Role (Rami Malek)
• The Favourite
  • Actress in a Leading Role (Olivia Colman), Actress in a Supporting Role (Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz), and Directing (Yorgos Lanthimos)
• Green Book
  • Actor in a Leading Role (Viggo Mortensen), and Actor in a Supporting Role (Mahershala Ali)
• Roma
  • Actress in a Leading Role (Yalitza Aparicio), Actress in a Supporting Role (Marina de Tavira), and Directing (Alfonso Cuarón)
• A Star Is Born
  • Actor in a Leading Role (Bradley Cooper), Actress in a Leading Role (Lady Gaga), and Actor in a Supporting Role (Sam Elliott)
• Vice
  • Actor in a Leading Role (Christian Bale), Actor in a Supporting Role (Sam Rockwell), Actress in a Supporting Role (Amy Adams), and Directing (Adam McKay)

Doesn’t it seem just a little suspicious that each of the other Best Picture candidates have actors or directors nominated, whereas Black Panther has nothing? Usually, at the bare minimum, either the lead actor or actress from a Best Picture nomination will get a Best Actor award nomination. And the fact that not even Chadwick Boseman could pull an acting nomination is concerning and, in my opinion, a bit insulting to the cast.

I’ve even argued that the visionary behind this movie, Ryan Coogler, deserves a nomination for directing. But instead, since this is a Best Picture nomination, producer Kevin Feige gets his name at the top of the bill for this project. I won’t say it’s completely unfair, because that’s just how things work, but it’d be amazing to see all credit given where credit’s due.

At the same time, as I mentioned in a follow-up tweet, I can’t be a complete downer on which nominations Black Panther isn’t getting. Because in the end… Black Panther is nominated for Best Picture.

Just let that sink in.

It’s pretty much the highest honor any movie can receive. And out of the hundreds of movies that came out last year, Black Panther is only one of eight movies to receive that distinguished nomination. Really, since Best Picture is an all-encompassing award, that means credit is still given to everyone on the team, from the actors to the interns.

So in the end, will Black Panther take home the award on Oscars night? With the odds stacked against it, things aren’t looking considerably favorable for the fan-favorite movie. Plus, with two Best Picture winners from the Golden Globes on that list (Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book), it’s giving the movie less of a leg up already. (Black Panther did get a Golden Globe nomination, at least, but ultimately lost to Bohemian Rhapsody.)

If the Academy wants to save its viewership, going for a wild card pick like Black Panther might not be a bad idea in the end. Personally, I’m still amazed at how far this movie has come and all of the recognition it has received — not only from the Academy, but from fans, critics, and even skeptics.

So, way to go Black Panther. And congrats to everyone involved in the film!

You can watch the Academy Awards on February 24 on ABC.