Emmys 2017: The dark horse pick to win every major category

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Courtesy: Hulu

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

  • Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
  • Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things
  • Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
  • Thandie Newton, Westworld
  • Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale

Thandie Newton is the strong favorite in this category and none of the other nominees make a particularly compelling case to upset her. Uzo Aduba has won twice before for Orange Is The New Black, and while that certainly doesn’t rule out a third victory, it certainly minimizes the chances in the face of such a strong “newcomer.”

Millie Bobby Brown doesn’t feel like the dark horse either — Stranger Things, delightful as it was, never felt like the acting accomplishment all the Emmy noms suggest — and something in my gut says it’s not quite Chrissy Metz’s year yet. (Though I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins for This Is Us after a season of more dynamic material.)

The same gut instinct has me leaning toward Samira Wiley, for The Handmaid’s Tale, as the upset pick. (But truly: Where is Ann Dowd’s nomination for The Leftovers? Where are any of the nominations for The Leftovers?)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
  • Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us
  • David Harbour, Stranger Things
  • Michael Kelly, House of Cards
  • John Lithgow, The Crown
  • Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
  • Jeffrey Wright, Westworld

Having not seen The Crown, I can’t speak to John Lithgow’s performance as Winston Churchill, but the consensus is that he is essentially a lock for the award for Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series. And good for him. His most likely usurper is Ron Cephas Jones for This Is Us — a performance equally worthy, in my humble opinion, but one that may suffer from a This Is Us numbers game. (If we think Sterling K. Brown wins, and Metz is technically on the table as a dark horse, and the show itself has good odds for Outstanding Drama, does the Academy think that’s enough? Then again: Categories are voted on by their peers, essentially safeguarding against “that’s enough for you” blocks.)

In any case: Dark horse. That has to be Jonathan Banks on Better Call Saul. Someone once suggested Banks was doing the most with the least on the show, which is not a knock on Better Call Saul‘s writing or directing team, but rather a credit to Banks’ ability to convey so much with a bare minimum of actual lines. He’s been nominated as the character Mike Ehrmantraut for supporting actor in 2013, 2015 and 2016 — the first for Breaking Bad and the most recent three (counting 2017) for Saul. He’s been consistently incredible, and a win for him would certainly be an indication that classic dark prestige drama is still going strong.