In December 2019, two trusted brands will go head-to-head as Patty Jenkins’ Wonder Woman sequel and Star Wars Episode IX hit theaters just a week apart.
If you’re a bit of sucker for a good underdog story, the two films in question here are fighting an uphill battle. Let’s take a look at a bit of their background first.
Wonder Woman
Wonder Woman opened in June and became the summer’s biggest hit. Indisputably the best entry in the DCEU so far, it gave Patty Jenkins all the ammunition she needed to negotiate the appropriate paycheck for her return. Before Warner Bros. officially booked the director, the studio set the release date of Wonder Woman 2 for Dec. 13, 2019. Nabbing a holiday release date is like a vote of confidence from the studio, which is pretty cool.
But… as we recently learned, a new contender has joined the running.
Star Wars Episode IX
First, Episode IX lost Colin Trevorrow. Originally slated for a May 2019 release, upon booking J.J. Abrams to return, Lucasfilm agreed to give him an additional seven months to work on the fourth iteration of the script with Chris Terrio. Star Wars Episode IX‘s new release date then became Dec. 20, 2019, just a week after Wonder Woman 2.
So, now what?
Now that everyone agrees that Wonder Woman is an amazing female superhero that can hold her own at the box office and Jenkins has been entrusted with her safe keeping for the sequel, the goal is to break a billion, something that the DCEU films have struggled to do so far. Star Wars has done it twice already with The Force Awakens (well, that hit two billion) and Rogue One, so the brand wants to keep their streak going (assuming The Last Jedi and Han Solo can do it, too).
Warner Bros. and Disney are big-time competitors, and both J.J. Abrams and Patty Jenkins proved that they know what they’re doing with their respective properties.
Though they won’t open on the same weekend, the question remains: Will Star Wars Episode IX will take a huge bite out of Wonder Woman 2‘s box office earnings? Out of the 31 movies in the billion dollar club, basically, like none of them opened within seven days of each other. In terms of opening weekends, Wonder Woman currently sits at spot No. 41 with a great $103.2 opening. Note that studios know it’s safest to put a month between release dates. Additionally, all Star Wars movies since Episode III: Revenge of the Sith opened past $100 million no sweat. The thing is, when you accept the reality of audience demographics, more dudes will buy more Star Wars tickets (ahead of time) than anyone will buy Wonder Woman tickets.
While the situation isn’t ideal, we can expect someone to blink and move. Episode IX already gave up its original spot to the live-action Aladdin film. So let’s look at Warner Bros.’ release date schedule.
They booked a ton of dates in 2019, but the safest one is probably that Aug. 2 spot. August proved to be a good month for Suicide Squad.
Plus, I’m sure Wonder Woman 2 could overcome any August slump. Nevertheless, Warner Bros. should do itself a favor and get Wonder Woman out of the way of both Star Wars Episode IX and Frozen 2. Forbes actually bets the film moves to summer 2020 for an easy win.
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If they don’t, I would bet my credits on Star Wars sweeping the entire month of December. That’s a good month for them and everyone will want to see how the sequel trilogy ends. If both films go toe-to-toe, Star Wars will probably emerge victoriously. Even if Wonder Woman’s one of the best fighters of all time.