Emmys 2017: The dark horse pick to win every major category

Courtesy: NBC

Emmy coverage always includes favorites and snubs, predictions for who should and who will win. But upsets are the most fun.

Ah, Emmy picks and predictions, those fickle things. You print out your ballot and then must consider: Should you be smart or bold? Should you pick who you think will win, who deserves to win or the only performance of the six you actually saw? Who is to say? Not us. Do what you want with your ballot.

But if you choose to be bold — like, really bold, borderline stupid bold — read on, as we’re happy to be your guide to the dark horse nominees chomping at the bit for an upset. Behold this list, an upset prediction list, which is the best kind of Emmy prediction list, because there is no pressure to be right. If the picks win, we’re highly in touch with the cultural and critical zeitgeist. If they don’t, well, they were long-shots anyways.

Without further ado, enjoy this list of dark horse and upset predictions and picks, across all the major acting and series awards, for the 2017 Emmys.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

• Louie Anderson, Baskets
• Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live
• Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
• Ty Burrell, Modern Family
• Tony Hale, Veep
• Matt Walsh, Veep

Alec Baldwin is the favorite here, as anyone who experienced the past year can attest. (You didn’t even have to see any of his guest appearances on Saturday Night Live to know that he had everyone breathless about SNL’s coverage of the president. In fact, he was so applauded that he made so many appearances as to move from the “guest” category — for which Melissa McCarthy won, also for SNL work, also imitating this administration — into “supporting.”)

In any case, our dark horse money here is on a White House performance of a different kind: That of Tony Hale for his work as Gary Walsh on HBO’s Veep. Hale has been nominated five times for the role and won twice. Hale would be an upset because he’s won before for the role and his performance has been recognized. And for those same reasons, you can’t really rule him out, qualifying him as a dark horse.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

• Vanessa Bayer, Saturday Night Live
• Anna Chlumsky, Veep
• Kathryn Hahn, Transparent
• Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live
• Judith Light, Transparent
• Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live

SNL had a year, to put it mildly. And as such, it seems highly likely that their cast members and guests will pick up awards in every category. In the case of the supporting actress race, with three performers nominated, it’s a convoluted enough situation to turn an SNL star — like Leslie Jones — into our upset candidate.

Kate McKinnon is the odds-favorite, so, yes, she’s your smart choice, but my logic goes like this: If the voting supporting actress pool finds McKinnon too obvious a winner — though, my lord, was her Clinton impression good — they can still earn palatable political points by recognizing one of her peers. Vanessa Bayer, funny as she is, was never especially memorable in a year of standout SNL performances and Jones, who was consistently visible, political and most importantly, funny, is nothing if not worthy of the award.

Courtesy: Netflix

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

• Pamela Adlon, Better Things
• Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie
• Allison Janney, Mom
• Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
• Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
• Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

The Emmys love recognizing Julia Louis-Dreyfus for her work as Selina Meyer on Veep and as long as Louis-Dreyfus keeps knocking her performance out of the park, there’s no reason to believe they’re going to stop. And while her competition in the field for Lead Actress in a Comedy Series all earned their noms, none of them vaulted to the undeniably acclaimed levels of Veep.

Still, it would be a delightful coup to see Tracee Ellis Ross win, as she’s hilarious on Black-ish, and the show navigated the tricky waters of post-election humor with nuance and jokes. Plus, it would also be a feather in the cap for broadcast network comedies. The talk vis-a-vis redeeming broadcast television is all about This Is Us, but recognition for Black-ish could do well to ensure networks continue to fund and support quality sitcoms too.

Moreover, Ellis Ross has been thinking about her acceptance speech since she was 12 and we’d love to see what she has to say. That, coupled with the fact she would be the first black woman to win an Emmy for comedy since 1981 and she set history with her Golden Globes win, creates an aura around her win that makes her a strong upset candidate.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

• Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
• Aziz Ansari, Master of None
• Zach Galifianakis, Baskets
• Donald Glover, Atlanta
• William H. Macy, Shameless
• Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Donald Glover almost definitely and certainly should win for Atlanta. Fans, critics, cynics — with whatever perspective you approach your picks, Glover makes sense. His comedic timing is impeccable and he performs equally well as the straight man or in physical farce. You could even argue that because his FX show is new and, at times, very weird, that he’s also a dark horse! (He’s not. He’s very much the favorite.)

That, in turn, puts Aziz Ansari in prime upset position for Master of None. Like Glover, he’s the man behind and center stage in an auteur comedy, beloved by millennials and heralded for bringing some much-needed representation to the TV landscape. If you wanted to recognize everything that makes Glover buzz-worthy but not recognize Glover, for some reason, Ansari would be your pick. (A more forgiving interpretation would be wanting to recognize Ansari’s and Glover’s progress but preferring Ansari’s performance. After all, Master of None and Atlanta are very different shows.)

Courtesy: HBO

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

• Judy Davis, Feud: Bette and Joan
• Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
• Jackie Hoffman, Feud: Bette and Joan
• Regina King, American Crime
• Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies
• Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies

Important disclosure: Big Little Lies is the only of these shows that I’ve seen, making this a hard category to pick. So let’s refer to the odds.

Laura Dern is the favorite here, and again, having only seen Big Little Lies, it makes total sense. She gave a searing and powerful performance as a working mother who feels endlessly outcast for that decision, adding shades of sympathy to a would-be villain — who was at times, very villainous — and gifting the world delightful GIFs in the process.

Who, then, from a series of shows I’ve never seen, should be the dark horse pick? Let’s go with Michelle Pfeiffer for her role as Bernie Madoff’s wife, Ruth, on The Wizard of Lies. By various accounts, it was a heartbreaking and enlightening role she performed with depth and grace. And, well, Regina King and Judy Davis are just as popular picks as Dern and Shailene Woodley, bless her heart, did not quite bring the chops of her co-stars. (Shout out to a residual glow of the show nom though.)

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

• Bill Camp, The Night Of
• Alfred Molina, Feud: Bette and Joan
• Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
• David Thewlis, Fargo
• Stanley Tucci, Feud: Bette and Joan
• Michael K. Williams, The Night Of

Another tough one. We like Alexander Skarsgard as the smart pick — you’ll see we find Big Little Lies to be a smart pick across the board — but the upset is a bit tougher to choose.

Stanley Tucci is a delight in almost every performance he gives and in lieu of major buzz, it’s easy to see him sneaking in as a dark horse for Feud: Bette and Joan. But the same could be said for Michael K. Williams. The lag time between when The Night Of aired and when Emmy voting took place could have hurt his chances, but the caliber of his performance was undeniable.

Ultimately, the edge goes to Michael K. Williams on this one, due to timing bolstering the degree to which it would be an upset.

Ewan McGregor as Emmit Stussy in Fargo. Photo credit: FX Networks.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

• Carrie Coon, Fargo
• Felicity Huffman, American Crime
• Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
• Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette and Joan
• Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette and Joan
• Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies

Oh, look. Another category in which a Big Little Lies actor is the favorite. And again — I can’t even be mad. Kidman’s performance deserves every bit of acclaim she’s received. But we’re here to talk upsets!

And for upsets, my inclination is to double-down on that Big Little Lies love with a pick for Reese Witherspoon. Carrie Coon made a strong case with her work on Fargo, but almost too strong of a case to truly be an upset. And again, we’re here to tell you the exceptional nominees that you may not have truly considered for reasons including but not limited to standout competition, a history of victory or a flashier, darker, meatier performance from a co-star.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

• Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
• Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Lying Detective
• Robert De Niro, The Wizard of Lies
• Ewan McGregor, Fargo
• Geoffrey Rush, Genius
• Jon Turturro, The Night Of

Shout out to Riz Ahmed, can’t wait to hear his acceptance speech. Onto the dark horse.

Something about Ewan McGregor’s performance on Fargo never hit the marks that it should have as far as Emmy buzz and campaigning. But it did, by most accounts, hit those marks as an acting performance — which the Emmys are in theory here to recognize. It’s certainly worthy of consideration, especially since he made the very popular move of playing two characters and occasionally acting against / physically fighting with himself. But even now, most of the conversation for the Lead Actor in a Limited Series race has centered around Ahmed and Robert De Niro, placing McGregor in prime upset form.

Courtesy: Hulu

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

• Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
• Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things
• Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
• Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
• Thandie Newton, Westworld
• Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale

Thandie Newton is the strong favorite in this category and none of the other nominees make a particularly compelling case to upset her. Uzo Aduba has won twice before for Orange Is The New Black, and while that certainly doesn’t rule out a third victory, it certainly minimizes the chances in the face of such a strong “newcomer.”

Millie Bobby Brown doesn’t feel like the dark horse either — Stranger Things, delightful as it was, never felt like the acting accomplishment all the Emmy noms suggest — and something in my gut says it’s not quite Chrissy Metz’s year yet. (Though I wouldn’t be surprised if she wins for This Is Us after a season of more dynamic material.)

The same gut instinct has me leaning toward Samira Wiley, for The Handmaid’s Tale, as the upset pick. (But truly: Where is Ann Dowd’s nomination for The Leftovers? Where are any of the nominations for The Leftovers?)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

• Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
• Ron Cephas Jones, This Is Us
• David Harbour, Stranger Things
• Michael Kelly, House of Cards
• John Lithgow, The Crown
• Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
• Jeffrey Wright, Westworld

Having not seen The Crown, I can’t speak to John Lithgow’s performance as Winston Churchill, but the consensus is that he is essentially a lock for the award for Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series. And good for him. His most likely usurper is Ron Cephas Jones for This Is Us — a performance equally worthy, in my humble opinion, but one that may suffer from a This Is Us numbers game. (If we think Sterling K. Brown wins, and Metz is technically on the table as a dark horse, and the show itself has good odds for Outstanding Drama, does the Academy think that’s enough? Then again: Categories are voted on by their peers, essentially safeguarding against “that’s enough for you” blocks.)

In any case: Dark horse. That has to be Jonathan Banks on Better Call Saul. Someone once suggested Banks was doing the most with the least on the show, which is not a knock on Better Call Saul‘s writing or directing team, but rather a credit to Banks’ ability to convey so much with a bare minimum of actual lines. He’s been nominated as the character Mike Ehrmantraut for supporting actor in 2013, 2015 and 2016 — the first for Breaking Bad and the most recent three (counting 2017) for Saul. He’s been consistently incredible, and a win for him would certainly be an indication that classic dark prestige drama is still going strong.

Photo: Patrick Harbron/FX

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

• Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
• Anthony Hopkins, Westworld
• Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
• Matthew Rhys, The Americans
• Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
• Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us

Sterling K. Brown is winning the award for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series and we could not be more excited. Yes, maybe, Bob Odenkirk wins for Better Call Saul. But c’mon, this is as close to a sure thing as possible. Everyone loves Brown. Even if you don’t love This Is Us, you love Brown. Let it happen.

But say it with me: Justice. For. The. Americans. In a normal world, Matthew Rhys would not be a dark horse for this award. (The dark horse should be Milo Ventimiglia: For all my love for This Is Us, I don’t totally understand that nomination.) But for some reason, The Americans, the FX show following the moral crises, murderous antics and surprisingly resonant parenting and or marital dilemmas of two undercover Russian spies, is like Emmy … I can’t even think of a good analogy, but it’s such a tease.

Rhys and Keri Russell are consistently nominated and they consistently lose. Ditto the show’s writing. The only element of the show the Emmys has ever recognized is Beloved Character Actress Margo Martindale. (As they should.)

But Rhys is so, so good on the show as the half of the couple — “Philip” — who is most struggling with his commitment to Mother Russia, the things he’s done and is asked to do and the impact it may all have on his daughter. This is peak “upset that shouldn’t be an upset.”

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

• Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
• Claire Foy, The Crown
• Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
• Keri Russell, The Americans
• Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld
• Robin Wright, House of Cards

Yes, Elisabeth Moss did excellent work on the uncomfortably and unfortunately relevant dystopian Hulu drama, The Handmaid’s Tale.

But one more time: Justice. For. The. Americans. All of the above applies again. And in addition to the delightful spy work (and wigs!) that she rocks, much like Rhys, Russell delicately conveys Elizabeth’s own particular set of concerns and preoccupations. Raising their daughter — technically, they have a son, too — but also her relationship to religion and Russia. The more die-hard of the two, the later seasons have given her layers that complicate her motives. And still, no awards.

Look, Emmys. If you snub The Americans again, there’s only one season left for you to make it right. And no one likes to settle for an obligatory last-season award.

Courtesy: HBO

Outstanding Limited Series

• Big Little Lies (favorite)
• Fargo
• Feud: Bette and Joan
• Genius
• The Night Of

Once again, it’s my humble belief that Big Little Lies deserves everything it’s picked for and that opinion holds true for the award for Outstanding Limited Series.

But were I to pick a dark horse, as is literally the point of this exercise, I would go with Fargo.

Outstanding Comedy Series

• Atlanta
• Black-ish
• Master of None
• Modern Family
• Silicon Valley
• Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
• Veep (favorite)

Veep is the definite and boring favorite for Outstanding Comedy Series. Atlanta is the buzz-worthy favorite. (You can’t really call it an upset candidate though, on account of the fact no one would really be surprised if it won. Delighted, yes, because we’re all cynics, but not really surprised.)

Master of None and Black-ish fall into a middle designation in which it would be a surprise if either won, but not that shocking. If Modern Family wins, it would be an upset of the most depressing kind and hence I’m not recognizing such a possibility here.

The true dark horse, then, is Silicon Valley. The HBO show that lives and dies by its funny-because-it’s-true identity had an exceptional fourth season, building off three already very funny years. The nomination also recognizes the last season featuring an all-time great character, Erlich Bachman, played by contentious actor and allegedly terrible interviewee T.J. Miller. But most importantly, isn’t an Emmy recognizing the creation of the Hot Dog / Not A Hot Dog app really what we need in 2017?

Outstanding Drama Series

• Better Call Saul
• The Crown
• The Handmaid’s Tale
• House of Cards
• Stranger Things (favorite)
• This Is Us
• Westworld

Next: Why Carrie Coon should win Outstanding Lead Actress

Honestly, the odds are so dumb on this one. I, too, enjoyed Stranger Things, but its status as the clear favorite for Outstanding Drama Series makes … almost no sense to me. Really, I think This Is Us is a more accurate favorite, given as it is that everyone is so delighted by the return-of-broadcast storyline and the recognition of a show that is not dark, but still dramatic.

In any case, Stranger Things is not a drama and Better Call Saul feels like the right dark horse here. Don’t @ me.